All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Santa Anita Derby is a 9 furlong race over the dirt for 3-year-olds at Santa Anita Park. First run in 1935, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race. The race was run over an all weather surface in 2009 and 2010.
A note to screen reader users. The interactive charts on this site are built using Google Charts. There are two major elements to each chart, the images used to display the chart and a tabular representation of the data within the chart. Unfortunately the charts are structured to announce all of the images before announcing the tabular data. In some cases this will mean upwards of 50 images get announced before the data. If you'd like to provide feedback please visit the Accessibility Statement for information.
Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Santa Anita Derby from 1991-2019.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Odds are shown as listed in the results charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Castledale (IRE) (2004 $30 odds), Buzzards Bay (2005 $30.10 odds) and Tiago (2007 $29.30 odds) have been excluded from the chart to allow for an overall better visualization. Outliers are included in the averages and medians.
1991-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$6.20
Median $1 Odds:
$2.80
2010-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$4.30
Median $1 Odds:
$3.60
1991-2019
Average $2 Win:
$14.40
Median $2 Win:
$7.60
2010-2019
Average $2 Win:
$10.60
Median $2 Win:
$9.20
Santa Anita Derby Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2019
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Dinard was 2nd choice in a 9 horse field.
1991-2019
Average Choice of Winner:
2.83
Average Field Size:
8.07
Average Favorite Finish Position:
2.41
2010-2019
Average Choice of Winner:
2.7
Average Field Size:
8.4
Average Favorite Finish Position:
2.3
Santa Anita Derby Winning Running Styles 1991-2019
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that 2016 winner Exaggerator was 16.5 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
The Santa Anita Derby has been predominately won by stalkers/pressers since 1991. Speed horses have also performed well in the time period. In the last 10 years stalkers/pressers have won 50% of the time.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Santa Anita Derby Winning Running Styles 1991-1999
The Santa Anita Derby has generally been a formful race where favorites have performed slightly better than the generally accepted average favorite win rate of 35%% to win 37.9% of the time. The average winning odds since 1991 are about 6.2-1 with a median of 2.8-1 and an average $14.40 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have crept down to 4.3-1 and $10.60 to win.
The winner on average has been 2nd choice, almost 3rd (2.83) since 1991 and has dipped slightly since 2010 2.7. The favorite has an average finish position of 2nd (2.3) since 1991.
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 48.2% of the time. In the last 10 runnings they’ve continued the trend winning 50% of the time.
Winners have overwhelmingly come from Santa Anita since 1991. Field size has been above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 8.07 starters since 1991 and 8.4 since 2010.
