All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Kentucky Oaks is a 9 furlong race over the dirt for 3-year-old fillies at Churchill Downs. First run in 1875, the Oaks along with the Kentucky Derby are the longest continuously running sporting events in America.
A note to screen reader users. The interactive charts on this site are built using Google Charts. There are two major elements to each chart, the images used to display the chart and a tabular representation of the data within the chart. Unfortunately the charts are structured to announce all of the images before announcing the tabular data. In some cases this will mean upwards of 50 images get announced before the data. If you'd like to provide feedback please visit the Accessibility Statement for information.
Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Kentucky Oaks from 1991-2019.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Odds are shown as listed in the results charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Gal in a Ruckus (1995 odds of 34-1), Lemons Forever (2006 odds of 47.1-1) and Princess of Sylmar (2013 odds of 38.8-1) have been excluded from the chart to allow for better overall visualization. Outliers are included in the averages and medians.
1991-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$9.30
Median $1 Odds:
$4.70
2010-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$9.70
Median $1 Odds:
$6.30
1991-2019
Average $2 Win:
$20.70
Median $2 Win:
$11.40
2010-2019
Average $2 Win:
$21.40
Median $2 Win:
$14.60
Kentucky Oaks Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2019
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Lite Light was 1st choice in a 10 horse field.
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that the 2017 winner Abel Tasman was 16.5 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
The Kentucky Oaks has been predominately won by stalkers/pressers (44.8%) since 1991 with deep closers performing second best (27.5%) in the time frame. In the last 10 years these two running styles have dominated the winners circle with 60% stalker/pressers and 30% deep closers. Front runners have only won three times since 1991.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
The majority of Kentucky Oaks winners have come from Keeneland since 1991, but in the last ten years Fair Grounds and Keeneland combined have produced 30% of the winners. Santa Anita has done well in the full time frame producing 20% of the winners.
Days Since Last Race 1991-2019
Average Days Since Last Race:
32.17
Median Days Since Last Race:
27
Kentucky Oaks Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2019
Winners on average have raced within the last 30 days and just over half came on a win. All but three Kentucky Oaks winners since 1991 finished in the money in the prior race.
The Kentucky Oaks has produced its share of generous payouts on favorites and long shots alike. The average winning odds since 1991 are 9.3-1 with a median of 4.7-1 and average payout of $20.70 for a $2 ticket. The medians jumped slightly since 2010 to odds of $6.3-1 and $14.60 to win (compared to a median of $11.40 to win since 1991. Also of note, in the last 10 years 60% of the winners have paid over $10.
The Kentucky Oaks has also been relatively formful with favorites performing just a hair below the generally accepted average favorite win rate of 35% to win 31% of the time. The winner has been 3rd choice on average (3.45) and favorites have finished 3rd on average (3.66). Since 2010 favorites finish position dropped slightly to 4th (4.2).
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 44.8% of the time. In the last 10 runnings they’ve improved upon that trend winning 60% of the time. Deep closers have performed well in the time period with 27.5% of the wins. Front runners have only won three times since 1991.
Winners have predominately come from Keeneland since 1991 with Santa Anita not too far behind. In the last 10 years Keeneland and Fair Grounds have each sent 30% of the winners. Field size has been well above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 11.07 starters since 1991 and 12.5 starters since 2010.
