All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Risen Star is a 8.5 furlong race over the dirt for 3-year-olds at Fair Grounds. First run in 1973, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race.
A note to screen reader users. The interactive charts on this site are built using Google Charts. There are two major elements to each chart, the images used to display the chart and a tabular representation of the data within the chart. Unfortunately the charts are structured to announce all of the images before announcing the tabular data. In some cases this will mean upwards of 50 images get announced before the data. If you'd like to provide feedback please visit the Accessibility Statement for information.
Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Risen Star from 1991-2019.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Odds are shown as listed in the results charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
I’ve Struck a Nerve (2013 $135.20 odds) has been excluded from the chart to allow for an overall better visualization. Outliers are included in the averages and medians.
Year
$1 Odds
1991
0.5
1992
2.5
1993
0.7
1993
6.7
1994
2.1
1995
2.4
1995
13.5
1996
15.9
1997
3.2
1998
1.3
1999
4.9
2000
1.6
2001
0.9
2002
0.7
2003
2.9
2004
1.9
2005
10.1
2006
2.7
2007
2.9
2008
0.9
2009
2.8
2010
2.5
2011
3.6
2012
0.8
2014
5
2015
3.8
2016
5.1
2017
8.1
2018
21
2019
1
$1 Odds
1991-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$8.60
Median $1 Odds:
$2.80
2010-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$18.60
Median $1 Odds:
$4.40
1991-2019
Average $2 Win:
$19.10
Median $2 Win:
$7.60
2010-2019
Average $2 Win:
$38.90
Median $2 Win:
$9.60
Risen Star Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2019
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Big Courage was 1st choice in an 8 horse field.
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that 2004 winner Gradepoint was 10 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
Running Style
Deep Closer
Off the Pace
Stalker/Presser
Speed
7
10
9
5
Speed
The Risen Star has been predominately won by off-the-pace runners since 1991, and that trend has continued over the last 10 years.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
The majority of Risen Star winners have come from Fair Grounds since 1991, but in the last 10 years winners have been evenly split between Fair Grounds and Gulfstream. Winners have generally raced within the last 35 days.
Track Last Raced
# of Winners
Fair Grounds
14
Gulfstream
7
Churchill Downs
3
Santa Anita
3
Oaklawn
2
Evangeline
1
Monmouth
1
...
Days Since Last Race 1991-2019
Average Days Since Last Race:
34.48
Median Days Since Last Race:
28
Risen Star Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2019
The Risen Star has generally been a good betting race. The average winning odds since 1991 are 8.6-1 with a median of 2.8-1 and an average $19.10 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have shot up to odds of 18.6-1 and $38.90 to win, largely thanks to longshot winners I’ve Struck a Nerve (2013) and Bravazo (2018). Medians since 2010 were also up, although less dramatically, to odds of 4.4-1 and $9.60 to win.
Favorites have under performed the 2017 average win rate of 37.89%, winning only 29% of the time since 1991. The winner on average has been the 2nd choice (2.65) since 1991 but, like odds and payouts, has crept up to 3rd choice (3.33) since 2010.
Off the pace runners have won 32.2% of the time and stalker/pressers have won 29% of the time. Wire-to-wire winners have had the least success since 1991 winning only 16.3% of the time.
Winners have predominantly come from Fair Grounds, but in the last 10 years 40% of the winners have come from either Fair Grounds or Gulfstream. Field size has been far above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 9.71 starters since 1991 and an average of 11.46 starters since 2010.
