All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is a 9 furlong race over the turf for 3-year-old fillies at Keeneland. First run in 1984, it’s named in honor of the Queen of the United Kingdom and other Commonwealth realms.
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Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup from 1991-2018.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner La Gueriere was 6th choice in a 9 horse field.
1991-2018
Average Choice of Winner:
3.82
Average Field Size:
8.79
Average Favorite Finish Position:
4.07
2010-2018
Average Choice of Winner:
2.56
Average Field Size:
8.22
Average Favorite Finish Position:
3.33
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Winning Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that 2015 winner Kitten’s Dumplings was 10 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup has been predominately won by stalkers/pressers, or those who run on or near the pacesetter. That trend has continued over the past 10 years with stalkers winning 40% of the time.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Winning Running Styles 1991-1999
The majority of Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup winners have come from Belmont Park since 1991. In the last 10 years Saratoga has sent 40% of the winners while Del Mar has sent 30%. Winners have generally raced within the last 39 days of their prior start.
Days Since Last Race 1991-2018
Average Days Since Last Race:
39.04
Median Days Since Last Race:
37.5
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Just over half of Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup winners came into the race off of a win (53.6%) and almost 90% came in finishing in the money (first, second or third) last out.
The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup has been a great race to play against the favorite.
The average and median winning odds since 1991 are 7.4-1 and 5-1 with the average $2 win ticket paying $16.80. Since 2010 those numbers have dipped to average odds of 5-1, median odds of 4.6-1 and $12.00 to win.
Favorites have notably unperformed the generally accepted average favorite win rate of 35% to win only 25% of the time since 1991. They’ve done a little better in the last 10 years, winning 30% of the time.
The winner on average has been almost 4th choice (3.83) since 1991 and has dropped notably to 2.56 since 2010. The favorite has an average finish position of 4th (4.07) since 1991 and 3rd (3.33) since 2010.
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 53.5% of the time. This trend has continued in the past ten years with stalker/pressers winning 40% of the time.
Winners have predominately come from Belmont Park since 1991 but have come mostly from Saratoga in the last 10 years. Field size has been slightly above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 8.79 starters since 1991 and 8.22 starters since 2010.
