All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Preakness is a 9.5 furlong race over the dirt for 3-year-olds at Pimlico. First run in 1873, it’s currently the middle race in the Triple Crown series.
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Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Preakness from 1991-2019.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Hansel was 4th choice in a 8 horse field.
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that 2007 winner Curlin was 13 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
The Preakness has been predominately won by stalker/pressers since 1991 with closers also performing well in the full time period. The last ten years have been even distributed between speed, stalkers and off-the-pace runners, each winning 30% of the time.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
The majority of Preakness winners have come from Churchill Downs. Rachel Alexandra (2009) made her prior start in the Kentucky Oaks, but all others came from the Kentucky Derby. Three winners made their prior start at Aqueduct.
The Preakness has generally been a formful race where favorites have outperformed the generally accepted average favorite win rate of 35% to win 44.8% of the time. The average winning odds since 1991 are 4.6-1 with a median of 2.95-1 and an average $10.60 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have improved slightly while the medians dropped.
The winner on average has been almost 3rd choice (2.48) since 1991 and has ticked up slightly since 2010 to a 2.83. The favorite has an average finish position of 2nd (2.46) since 1991, but since 2010 has dropped to 3rd (3.36).
Stalkers/Pressers have performed best since 1991 winning 34.4% of the time with closers not far behind at 31%. The last ten years have been evenly distributed.
Winners have overwhelming come from the Kentucky Derby since 1991. Field size has been above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 10.86 starters since 1991 and 10.92 starters since 2010.
