All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Met Mile is a 8 furlong race over the dirt for 3-year-olds and up at Belmont Park. First run in 1891, the Metropolitan Handicap is commonly referred to as the Met Mile..
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Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Met Mile from 1991-2018.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Odds are shown as listed in the results charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
2001 winner Exciting Story has been excluded from the chart as an outlier at $1 odd of $56.75 to allow for better overall visualization. Outliers are included in the averages and medians.
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner In Excess (IRE) was 2nd choice in a 14 horse field.
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that Honor Code (2015) and Sahara Sky (2013) were each 11.25 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
The Met Mile has been predominately won by stalkers/pressers(51.7% since 1991. Speed has also performed well in the time period (24.1%). In the last 10 years stalkers and speed have each won 30% of the time.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
The majority of Met Mile winners have come from Aqueduct in the time period. Belmont and Churchill have also sent a respectable amount of winners. In the last 10 years winners have come from a variety of tracks with Churchill producing three wins.
Just over half of Met Mile winners won their prior race and approximately three quarters of the winners finished in the money, or no worse than third, last out.
The majority of winners and starters since 1991 have been 4-year-olds. While 7- and 8-year-olds have started in the time frame, none have won. A handful of 3-year-olds have won, the last in 1996.
Numbers over 1 outperform expected value and numbers less than 1 underperform expected value. Learn more about how A/E ratio is calculated and how it should be interpreted.
In addition to having the most winners, 4-year-olds also comprised 56.39% of the starters since 1991, 5-year-olds represent the next largest group in the time frame. Looking at the performance of each age group, 4-year-olds have a relatively low win % (10.32%) compared to the number of starters (56.36%). But looking at the average versus expected value ratio, also known as A/E ratio, 4-year-olds have performed as expected earning an A/E of 1.01.
3-year-olds represent a small amount of overall starters (3.64%), but have performed well with 30% of them winning and an A/E ratio of 2.48, meaning they have outperformed their expected value. 5-year-olds have underperformed the most in the period.
There have not been any two-time winners of Met Mile in the time period. A total of 20 individual starters have made more than one start in the Met Mile since 1991.
A run back is defined as a starter who made a prior start in the race. For example 1999 winner Sir Bear ran back in the 2000 Met Mile where he finished 3rd.
Starters who have made a prior start in the Met Mile have not performed particularly well, winning only 9.52% of the time.
The Met Mile has produced its share of generous payouts on favorites and longshots alike. The average winning odds since 1991 are 6.1-1 with a median of 3.5-1 and an average $14.20 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages have ticked down to 3.1-1 and $8.30 to win.
Favorites have slightly outperformed the generally accepted average favorite win rate of 35% to win 37.9% of the time since 1991 and have run in the money 68.9% of the time. The winner on average has been about 3rd choice (2.86) since 1991 but has dropped to about 2nd choice since 2010 (1.83).
Stalkers/Pressers been the overwhelming winners since 1991 winning 51.7% of the time. In the last 10 years stalkers and speed have each won 30% of the time.
The majority of both winners and starters have been 4-year-olds, and they’ve performed as expected. While 3-year-olds have not entered often, they have performed well in the time period with 30% of 3-year-old starters winning. Starters who have made a prior start in the Met Mile, known as run backs, have not performed well, winning only 9.5% of the time.
