All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Louisiana Derby is a 9 furlong race over the dirt for 3-year-olds at Fair Grounds. First run in 1894, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race. The race was not run 2006 due to Hurricane Katrina.
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Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Louisiana Derby from 1991-2019.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Odds are shown as listed in the results charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Hero of Order (2012) has been excluded from the chart as an outlier at $1 odd of $109.40 to allow for better overall visualization. Outliers are included in the averages and medians.
1991-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$9.10
Median $1 Odds:
$2.60
2010-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$16.10
Median $1 Odds:
$3.60
1991-2019
Average $2 Win:
$20.20
Median $2 Win:
$7.30
2010-2019
Average $2 Win:
$34.20
Median $2 Win:
$9.20
Louisiana Derby Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2019
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Richman was 1st choice in an 11 horse field.
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that 1994 winner Kandaly was 14.75 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
1992 Line in the Sand won by disqualification and has been excluded from the running style charts since he did not finish first
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
The Louisiana Derby has been predominately won by stalkers/pressers have had a slight edge in the Louisiana Derby since 1991, winning 40.7% of the time. Closers were not far behind winning 37% of the time. In the last 10 years stalkers/pressers were dominant winning 60% of the time.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
The majority of Louisiana Derby winners have come from Fair Grounds since 1991, with that number jumping to 80% in the last 10 years. Winners have generally raced within the last 33 days..
Days Since Last Race 1991-2019
Average Days Since Last Race:
33.96
Median Days Since Last Race:
29
Louisiana Derby Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2019
For a race where favorites outperform the generally accepted win rate of 35% to win 50% of the time, the Louisiana Derby has been prone to decent payouts.
Average winning odds since 1991 were 9-1 with a median of 2.65-1 and an average $2 win payout of $20.20. Since 2010 those numbers jump considerably to average winning odds of 16.1-1 with a median of 3.6-1 and an average $2 win payout of $34.20. Even when 2012 outlier Hero of Order ($212.80 to win) is removed, the average $2 win has been $13.50, and that’s with the favorite winning 50% of the time.
Stalkers/pressers have had a slight edge, winning 40.7% of the time since 1991 while closers have won 37% of the time. In the last years stalkers/pressers have been dominate winning 60% of the time.
Winners have come from Fair Grounds 71.4% of the time and on average run in the last 33 days. Field size has surpassed the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 10 starters since 1991 and 11.1 starters since 2010.
