All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Florida Derby is a 9 furlong race over the dirt for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream Park. First run in 1952, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race.
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Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Florida Derby from 1991-2019.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Odds are shown as listed in the results charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Bull Inthe Heather (1993 – $29.40 odds) and Friends Lake (2004 – $37.40 odds) have been excluded from the chart to allow for better overall visualization. Outliers are included in the averages and medians.
Year
$1 Odds
1991
0.4
1992
12.1
1994
2.7
1995
2
1996
2
1997
3.9
1998
0.7
1999
4.6
2000
6.9
2001
1.4
2002
1.7
2003
2.1
2005
1.2
2006
1.6
2007
2.2
2008
1.5
2009
1.2
2010
20.7
2011
2.9
2012
7.7
2013
2.9
2014
3.3
2015
1.8
2016
1.2
2017
2.7
2018
1.6
2019
4.8
$1 Odds
1991-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$5.60
Median $1 Odds:
$2.20
2010-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$4.90
Median $1 Odds:
$2.90
1991-2019
Average $2 Win:
$14.20
Median $2 Win:
$7.40
2010-2019
Average $2 Win:
$11.90
Median $2 Win:
$7.80
Florida Derby Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2019
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Fly So Free was 1st choice in an 8 horse field.
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that 2011 winner Dialed In was 10.5 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
Running Style
Deep Closer
Off the Pace
Stalker/Presser
Speed
8
2
11
8
Speed
The Florida Derby has been predominately won by stalkers/pressers since 1991 (37.9%) while deep closers and speed have each won 27.6% of the time. In the last 10 years stalker/pressers won 40% of the time.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 5.7-1 with a median of 2.2-1 and an average $14.20 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 those averages dipped slightly to 4.9-1 odds and $11.90 to win. Medians slightly increased to 2.9-1 odds and $7.80 to win.
Favorites have under-performed the generally accepted average favorite win rate of 35% win rate, winning only 27.9% of the time since 1991. On average the favorite has finished 2nd (2.59) since 1991 but since 2010 has dropped to an average 3rd place finish (3.3). The winner on average has been the 2nd choice (2.69).
Stalkers/Pressers, or those horses who sit within 3-lengths of the winner, have had the most success, winning 37.9% percent of the time. Deep closers and speed horses have each won 27.5% of the time. In the last 10 years stalkers/pressers won 40% of the time.
On average winners had raced within approximately 31 days prior to the Florida Derby and Gulfstream Park has produced all but two winners winners since 1991. Field size has been above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 10.34 starters since 1991 and an average of 10.3 starters since 2010.
