All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Arlington Million is a 10 furlong race over the turf for 3-year-olds and up at Arlington Park. First run in 1981, it’s currently a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race. The race was not run in 1998 and 1999.
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Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Arlington Million from 1991-2018.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Tight Spot was 1st choice in a 10 horse field.
1991-2018
Average Choice of Winner:
3.27
Average Field Size:
10.12
Average Favorite Finish Position:
3.5
2010-2018
Average Choice of Winner:
3.44
Average Field Size:
10.56
Average Favorite Finish Position:
5.56
Arlington Million Winning Running Styles 1991-2018
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that Gio Ponti (2009) and The Pizza Man (2015) were 13 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
The Arlington Million has been predominately won by off-the-pace runners, or those who sat more three lengths off the leader. The last 10 years have been no different with 60% of the winners coming from off the pace.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
Arlington Million Winning Running Styles 1991-1999
The majority of Arlington Million winners have come from Belmont Park and Del Mar with the rest coming from a variety of tracks. 19.2% of winners since 1991 were international shippers coming from England, Ireland, Germany and Singapore.
Days Since Last Race 1991-2018
Average Days Since Last Race:
36.15
Median Days Since Last Race:
28.5
Arlington Million Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2018
Only 26.9% of Arlington Million winners won their prior race since 1991 with all but five winners finishing in the money (first, second or third) last out.
Numbers over 1 outperform expected value and numbers less than 1 underperform expected value. Learn more about how A/E ratio is calculated and how it should be interpreted.
In addition to having the most winners, 4 and 5-year-olds also had the most starters comprising 66.5% of all starters between them. 6-year-olds made up almost 20% of the starters (20.2%) while 7-year-olds represent 7.6% of starters. 3-, 8- and 9-year-old each made up less than 3% of the overall starters.
Looking at the performance of each age group, 8-year-olds had the highest win rate relative to the amount of starters at 14.3% while 6-year-olds have the lowest win rate (3.7%) of the groups with a win. 4-year-olds have slightly outperformed 5-year-olds.
Arlington Million Multiple Winners & Run Backs 1991-2018
There have not been any two-time winners of the Arlington Million since 1991, however 2005 winner Powerscourt (GB) finished first in 2004 but was disqualified and placed second. A total of 32 individual starters have made more than one start in the Arlington Million since 1991 for a total of 43 run back starts.
A run back is defined as a starter who made a prior start in the race. For example 2006 winner The Tin Man first ran in the 2003 Arlington Million and finished 6th. He ran back in to win in 2006 and then again to finish 2nd in 2007.
Starters who have made a prior start in the Arlington Million have not performed particularly well, winning only 6.9% of the time. Run back starters have fared a little better if you look at in the money finishes, hitting the board 30.2% of the time since 1991.
The Arlington Million has been a good place to find a price, especially in the last 10 years.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 5.9-1 with a median of 5-1 and an average $13.80 payout for a $2 win ticket. Since 2010 the averages have crept up to odds of 6-1 with a payout of $14.60 while medians slightly dropped to 4.9-1 and $11.80.
Favorites have unperformed the generally accepted average favorite win rate of 35% to win 26.9% of the time since 1991 and only 20% in the last 10 years. The favorite on average has 3rd choice since 1991 (3.37) trending towards 4th choice since 2010 (3.44). Favorites on average have finished 3rd (3.5) since 1991 and 5th (5.56) since 2010.
Off the pace runners have won 38.4% of the time with deep closers and stalkers each having won 23% of the time since 1991.
The majority of both winners and starters have been 4-year-olds. 5-year-olds have entered a bit less often than 4-year-olds but have won almost as often when comparing wins relative to numbers of starts. There have been no 3-, 7-, or 9-year-old winners since 1991. Starters who have made a prior start in the Arlington Million, known as run backs, have not performed well, winning only 6.9% of the time.
Winners have come primarily from Belmont Park since 1991. International runners have also done well in the time frame but have not come from a single track. Since 1991 the average field size has been notably above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 10.12 starters, since 2010 that number has increased to 10.56 average starters.
