All data was manually compiled and is subject to human error.
Introduction
The Arkansas Derby is a 9 furlong race over the dirt for 3-year-olds at Oaklawn Park. First run in 1936, it’s currently a Kentucky Derby points race.
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Below is a look at data from a variety of angles to see what has produced winners in the Arkansas Derby from 1991-2019.
Charts are interactive, hover over or touch bars and lines for more information.
Odds are shown as listed in the results charts. Hover-over or touch each bar for $2 payout.
Rockamundo (IRE) (1993 $108 odds), Sir Cherokee (2003 $55.60 odds) and Danza (2014 $41.30 odds) have been excluded from the chart to allow for an overall better visualization. Outliers are included in the averages and medians.
1991-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$12.20
Median $1 Odds:
$2.90
2010-2019
Average $1 Odds:
$10.60
Median $1 Odds:
$3.00
1991-2019
Average $2 Win:
$26.40
Median $2 Win:
$7.00
2010-2019
Average $2 Win:
$23.20
Median $2 Win:
$8.10
Arkansas Derby Bettors’ Choice and Field Size 1991-2019
Bettors’ Choice is the ranked order of the field by final odds: The favorite is the first choice, the second favorite is the second choice and so on. For example, 1991 winner Olympio was 2nd choice in an 11 horse field.
To read the charts below, 0 on the vertical axis is the lead, any distance behind the leader is below 0 and any distance above 0 is the amount the leader is ahead of the next horse. At the bottom are the points of call as they correspond to the charts. Each line is a horse, and you can hover over the point of call for each line to see more information about the horse.
For example, if you hover over the bottom-most line in the first chart, at the 1/2 mile mark you’ll see that 2003 winner Sir Cherokee was 17.25 lengths behind the leader at this point in the race.
Certain (2006) won by disqualification and has been excluded from the running style charts since he did not finish first.
Position at the 1/2 mile mark
Speed:
In the lead
Presser/Stalker:
Between .1 and 3 lengths off leader
Off the pace:
Between 3 and 6 lengths off the leader
Deep closer:
More than 6 lengths off the leader
The Arkansas Derby has been predominately won by stalker/pressers have has a slight advantage in the Arkansas Derby since 1991, winning 35.7% of the time. Deep closers and speed have also performed well, each winning 25% of the time. In the last 10 years early speed has won 80% of the time, evenly split between speed and stalker/pressers.
A closer look at winning running styles by decade.
The majority of Arkansas Derby winners have come from Oaklawn Park. In the last 10 years Oaklawn produced 50% of the winners while Gulfstream and Santa Anita each produced 20%.
Days Since Last Race 1991-2019
Average Days Since Last Race:
28.9
Median Days Since Last Race:
28
Arkansas Derby Winners Placing in Prior Race 1991-2019
Just under half of Arkansas Derby winners won their prior race and more than three quarters of the winners finished in the money, or no worse than third, last out.
On occasion a longshot bomb will win the Arkansas Derby, but overall favorites have performed well.
The average winning odds since 1991 are 12.2-1 with a median of 2.9-1, and the average $2 win payout is $26.40 with a median of $3.00. Since 2010 the averages dipped slightly to 10.6-1 and $23.20 to win.
In addition to frequently providing generous payouts, the Arkansas Derby has also been relatively formful with favorites outperforming the generally accepted average favorite win rate of 35% to win 44.8% of the time. The winner on average has been the 3rd choice (3.45) since 1991 and that average has remained relatively steady since 2010 at 3.08. The favorite has had an average finish position of 3rd (3.14) since 1991.
Stalkers/Pressers have had the edge since 1991 winning 35.7% of the time. Those with early speed have performed best in the last 10 years winning 80% of the time, evenly split between front runners and stalker/pressers.
Winners have generally prepped locally at Oaklawn Park, winning 48.3% of the time since 1991. In the last 10 years Oaklawn retained its edge producing 50% of the winners with Gulfstream and Santa Anita each producing 20%. Field size has been well above the 2017 average of 7.7 starters with an average of 10.34 starters since 1991 and 10.5 starters since 2010.
